Bitcoin News, Bitcoin will probably present a good show in November , with a positive price event in six months.
The number one cryptocurrency by market value is coming out of October on a positive note, because it sharply recovered from the five-month lows below US $ 7,500 seen a week ago, as Cryptocurrency reported .
The recovery could be extended further next month, because the cryptocurrency will undergo a mining reward that will be halved in May 2020 . The process aims to curb inflation by reducing the bitcoin reward per block extracted in the blockchain by 50% every four years.
Currently, miners get 12.5 BTC for each block removed. That will fall to 6.25 BTC after halving, which means that 50% less bitcoins will be generated every 10 minutes. In other words, the supply of new currencies will be halved after May.
In the past, cryptocurrency has picked up a strong offer six months before the reward is cut in half.
The Bitcoin block reward was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC in November 2012. BTC recovered from $ 5 to $ 16 in the three months, until mid-August and built a new base of around US $ 10.00 in November.
In similar lines, BTC jumped from 360 to 780 dollars in the four months until mid-June 2016, before cutting profits and falling back to US $ 465 in August , when the block reward was reduced from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC
The data indicates that the market begins to set prices in an imminent supply cut six months in advance.
So, if the story is a guide, BTC may rise well above the recent high of US $ 10,350 in November and could challenge the 2019 high of US $ 13,880 in the coming months.
Positive seasonality (Bitcoin News)
In addition to the likelihood of a rebound, Bitcoin has made gains in November in six of the last eight years .
In particular, November was a green month for six consecutive years from 2012 to 2017. The winning race ended last year with a 37% drop, the largest loss recorded in November. At that time, however, BTC was in a bear market. The cryptocurrency had already fallen 70% since the record of US $ 20,000, reached in December 2017.
This time, the general trend is bullish, as indicated by the three-digit earnings for the year to date. BTC, therefore, is likely to revive the November winning trend.
Currently, Bitcoin is changing hands around US $ 9,100 in Bitstamp, which represents a 0.2% drop on a 24-hour basis. The cryptocurrency is trapped between the key moving averages (MA), as seen in the chart below.
Daily charts and schedules
Bitcoin has been under pressure for the past 24 hours, as expected, but the disadvantage is being restricted around the 200-day MA, currently at $ 9,025.
The breakdown of the hiring triangle seen in the hourly chart indicates that Bitcoin could fall further to the old support converted into resistance of US $ 8,820 . A violation there would expose the next support aligned at US $ 8,474.
The outlook, according to the hourly chart, would go up above the lowest low of US $ 9,245. A rapid movement above US $ 9,245 cannot be ruled out, because the recent decline of US $ 10,350 is accompanied by a drop in trading volumes. A low volume correction is often short lived.
A break above US $ 9,245 would probably yield a new 100-day MA test at US $ 9,606 . BTC has failed three times in the last five days to maintain above-average long-term gains. As a result, a UTC close above the 100-day MA could embolden the bulls, which would lead to a sustained movement above US $ 10,000.
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